Will the 2026 World Cup drive billions to crypto prediction markets, or will regulated CeFi capture the flow?

Executive summary

According to a report by investment firm Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is projected to generate up to $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift across sports betting and prediction platforms, alongside more than $3 billion in incremental handle. The expanded 48-team format, featuring 104 matches, represents a 60% increase in bettable inventory compared to prior tournaments. Bernstein characterized this upcoming event as a potential "watershed moment" that could accelerate the growth of prediction markets, building on recent momentum seen by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

This projected surge in consumer activity comes amid a broader expansion of prediction market infrastructure by major financial and cryptocurrency firms. For instance, DraftKings recently disclosed that its May annualized consumer volume rose 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion, with total volume traded increasing 34% to $3.1 billion. In response to this growing demand, mainstream trading platforms are rapidly integrating prediction market products. Robinhood has partnered with Rothera—an independent CFTC-licensed exchange backed by Susquehanna International Group—to launch World Cup event contracts. Concurrently, Coinbase is offering similar contracts through its partnership with Kalshi, having already reported crossing $100 million in annualized prediction markets revenue within two months of its early 2026 launch.

Why it matters

From a market-structure perspective, the primary battleground of this event is not between different sportsbooks, but rather between decentralized Web3 protocols and regulated CeFi platforms. While Polymarket demonstrated the massive scale of on-chain event wagering during the 2024 US election cycle, the institutional entry of Coinbase and Robinhood suggests a significant portion of the upcoming World Cup capital flows may be captured by centralized, CFTC-compliant rails. This structural shift could limit the direct liquidity and transactional volume benefits that would otherwise accrue to decentralized networks.

For crypto-native investors, the critical metric is whether this $10 billion in projected volume drives on-chain utility. Historically, high prediction market volumes on platforms like Polymarket have stimulated transaction counts and trading volumes on underlying scaling networks like Polygon. However, because these platforms settle contracts in stablecoins like USDC, the net economic impact on native gas tokens (such as POL) is historically muted due to low transaction fees. If the majority of retail volume is routed through Coinbase's Kalshi integration or Robinhood's Rothera partnership, the on-chain footprint will be even smaller, as these trades settle off-chain or on private, regulated ledgers. Consequently, the primary financial beneficiaries of this volume surge are likely to be equity-backed operators (such as Coinbase and DraftKings) rather than decentralized protocols, as they capture direct transaction fees and user acquisition without the regulatory risks currently facing offshore, non-KYC platforms.

Furthermore, the liquidity dynamics of prediction markets require deep, highly stable order books to prevent manipulative front-running and wide bid-ask spreads. During periods of high volatility, such as live sporting events, trading volumes can spike dramatically, testing the capital efficiency of automated market makers (AMMs) versus traditional order-book models. Regulated platforms backed by market-making giants like Susquehanna are structurally better positioned to provide deep liquidity, potentially drawing institutional capital away from decentralized pools. This reinforces the view that the World Cup will act more as a validation of prediction markets as an asset class rather than a direct catalyst for decentralized token valuations.