US Congress targets CBDC ban until 2030 — does it shift capital to stablecoins?

Executive summary

According to a report by Cointelegraph, US Congressional leaders have reached a bipartisan agreement on the 21st Century Road to Housing Act. This legislative package includes a provision that temporarily prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing or creating a central bank digital currency (CBDC), or any substantially similar digital asset, until December 31, 2030. The bill, which has carried this CBDC prohibition since passing the Senate in March 2026, is expected to face a final House vote after lawmakers return from recess on June 23, 2026. The Senate has added further amendments to the bill, which will now be put before the House for a final vote to resolve previous disagreements between the chambers.

Crucially, the legislation contains an explicit carveout protecting private, open, and permissionless stablecoins, defining them as 'dollar-denominated currency that is open, permissionless, and private.' This language mirrors previous legislative efforts, such as Representative Tom Emmer’s Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act from June 2025. The current market backdrop remains neutral, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $64,886, down 2.5% over the past 24 hours but up 6.0% over the last 7 days. Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,773, down 1.0% in 24 hours but up 8.2% over 7 days. Trading volumes across major exchanges have remained within normal ranges, showing no immediate spikes in response to the legislative update, reflecting a market that is currently treating this development as a long-term structural shift rather than an immediate trading catalyst.

Why it matters

From a market-structure perspective, the primary impact of this bill is not the CBDC ban itself, but the formal legal distinction and protection it affords to private stablecoins. By explicitly excluding 'open, permissionless, and private' digital currencies from the CBDC ban, Congress is effectively codifying a dual-track monetary system where private stablecoin issuers (such as Circle and Tether) are positioned as the primary vehicles for digital dollar innovation. This reduces the long-term regulatory tail risk for these issuers and could catalyze institutional capital flows into stablecoin-based settlement infrastructure, ultimately benefiting the broader decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

However, the immediate liquidity impact on spot markets is expected to be minimal. A US CBDC was already a remote prospect, particularly following President Donald Trump's January 2025 executive order banning federal agencies from CBDC development. Consequently, the formalization of this ban does not represent a shift in near-term monetary reality. Spot trading volumes for BTC and ETH are unlikely to experience significant expansion solely based on this development, as market participants remain focused on macroeconomic liquidity indicators such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and global capital flows.

Furthermore, the resolution of this housing bill deal is structurally significant because it clears the legislative queue. With the housing bill finalized, Congress can redirect its focus toward other pending digital asset legislation before the August recess and November midterm elections. Specifically, the highly anticipated CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, may now see accelerated progress. If the CLARITY Act advances, it would represent a far more potent catalyst for institutional stablecoin adoption and on-chain liquidity than the symbolic blocking of a Fed-issued CBDC, providing a clearer runway for compliant financial products.